Ian Pearson - Imperial College

“Sustainable Futures: The Challenge for the Next Generation of Engineers”

Just recently I discovered that all the members of the Chinese politburo are trained engineers. So perhaps the challenge for the next generation of engineers is global governance.

Standing today here in Britain, it is easy to forget that it is only a generation or so ago, back in the 1960s, that less than a fifth of pupils took O’Levels, and only one eighteen-year-old in twenty went into Higher Education. We have seen massive change in the UK and globally with the emergence of China and India as economic super-powers producing almost four times the number of engineering graduates that we do in Europe and the US combined.

Predicting the future for Sir Francis Bacon 400 years ago was something to ‘be despised, and serve but for winter talk by the fireside.’ In those days, predictions were based mostly on astrology. Now we have scientific models, scenario planning and game theories to help us, and in my view it would be a dereliction of our responsibility as politicians if we did not use what limited knowledge we have to make judgements and decisions on how we can best prepare Britain for the challenges ahead.

While we cannot know the future, it is always uncertain, it seems to me that the challenges the next generation will face are highly likely to be more severe than those faced so far during my lifetime, and for engineers probably as profound as those brought about by the industrial revolution of the 18th and 19th Centuries. And what took 200 years to evolve in that revolution could take just 20 years this time.

I say that for two key reasons.

The first is the increasingly worrying science about how our climate is changing. The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment reports published earlier this year were the result of six years’ work by over 2,500 scientists and extensively peer reviewed. It stated that global temperatures are likely to rise between 1.1 and 6.4°C (with a best estimate of 1.8 to 4°C) above 1990 levels by the end of this century. This will result in a further rise in global sea levels of between 20 and 60cm by the end of this century, continued melting of ice caps, glaciers and sea ice, changes in rainfall patterns and intensification of tropical cyclones.

The second big reason is the challenge of a rapidly growing population. There are more people on this planet today than the total of all those who have lived on it previously. In 1950 it is estimated that the global population was around 3 billion. In 2000 the figure was 6 billion. By 2050 best estimates put it at 9 billion, a trebling within 100 years.

These are huge challenges for this and the next generation, for politicians, people and businesses – and technological innovation must play a key role in providing solutions.

I recently read – with interest and concern – a report published by Arup on manufacturers’ attitudes to sustainability. I was pleased to see that 70% recognised that sustainable manufacturing would be important to their businesses over the next 3-5 years. However, while nearly 90% recognised that legislation would require them to change their processes, only around 40% had made the necessary changes. It shows how far we have to go.

Last year the then DTI published a report into the issues affecting the growth in take-up of environmental technologies. It found that skills gaps were leading to shortages of qualified staff, raising costs for those trying to develop or sell new technologies. A lack of science graduates was also limiting UK companies from expanding.

Tackling climate change will generate major new markets in existing and new technologies that are likely to be worth at least $700 billion globally by 2015. This is an opportunity that the engineers of today and tomorrow can help us capitalise on, while also contributing to mitigating the impacts of the most damaging features of climate change.

We need to move to zero carbon energy within the next generation. Over the next 25 years, the International Energy Agency predict global energy demand will increase by nearly 50 per cent. Over 70 per cent of this will be in developing countries. Improving energy efficiency, avoiding lock-in of carbon intensive new power generation systems, and working with the developing economies on this agenda will be crucial. Engineering solutions to energy use and generation are going to be essential if we are to meet these challenges.

Infrastructures around the world will need to be made more resilient to changing weather patterns and new extremes. Whatever the world does tomorrow, some degree of climate change is already underway because of our past actions. Engineering solutions will need to look ahead to environmental conditions in ten, twenty and thirty and more years time, and build in new tolerances.

In the UK there are over 17,000 UK companies that are already focussing on the environment in one way or another. This £25 billion industry employs over 400,000 people and I expect this to more than double within the next ten years with employment growing by at least 100,000 over the same period.

Environmental technology firms listed on AIM are worth over £4.8billion and nearly half experienced growth over 40% in 2005.

But sustainability is not just about avoiding dangerous climate change … it is also about finite resources, and looking at society and resources in a more holistic way; considering sustainability in the global supply chain and looking at our impact on local communities. As the WWF remind us, if everyone in the world consumed as much resources as we do in the UK, we would need three planets to live on, not just the one we have.

Companies which are successful on the world stage are increasingly recognizing that resource efficiency and sustainable development are central to their competitiveness.

Major names like Unilever, Ford, and BMW are all moving to more sustainable means of production. The successful companies of tomorrow will need engineers that can help them find ethical, environmentally sound solutions to the even tougher challenges to come. Whole production processes – engineered to minimize resource use (including energy) – and the move towards products designed to be recycled more easily is the way forward. These will be among the greatest challenges – and opportunities for engineers.

It is innovation and design that is the key to ensure that UK companies can continue to harness the potential of our science discoveries and turn them into market opportunities here and abroad.

So what is Government doing?

From basic research to industrial application, we are providing funding to help ensure that the UK can benefit from and exploit the market opportunities of new low carbon technologies.

New products and services which cost less and work better are always required. Innovation in goods and services that benefit the environment is a triple win. It reduces the cost of meeting necessary environmental targets, makes possible new policies to meet future needs at the same time as creating wealth and jobs. That is why we are committed to making the UK a leading player in this high growth sector of the future.

We have doubled the science budget since 1997 and today it stands at around £3.5 billion a year. This has included a growing energy programme funded through our research councils. Programmes like SuperGen and Carbon Vision have lead to a more than doubling of basic research in this area in the last 7 years.

Two small examples of where we are providing funding to help engineering for the future:

• Over £8m investment in Supergen Marine consortium – led by University of Edinburgh - tackling a wide range of challenges associated with wave and tidal power. Prototype devices exist for generating marine energy, but there is still a lot to learn about marine energy resources and ways to efficiently harness them and feed energy into networks.
• Carbon sequestration – a key technology for the future- consortium of 15 institutions, led by Imperial College, is being supported with a grant of £2 million from EPSRC and NERC to promote an understanding of how options for using carbon capture and storage could be used to assist the UK in achieving an environmentally sustainable energy system.

So far, the Technology Strategy Board has worked with business to fund over 600 projects worth £900m in areas such as environmentally friendly transport – for example the Morgan LifeCAR project to develop a hydrogen-fuel cell sports car, as announced at the Geneva Motor show.

We have also set up the Energy Technologies Institute - which is a new partnership with some of the world's biggest energy companies. The institute will work in the area of applied research and development, and will play a major role in international technology developments that support the UK's climate change goals. EDF Energy, Shell, BP, E.ON UK, Rolls-Royce, Caterpillar Inc. and Scottish and Southern Energy have already signed up.

And, building on the work of the Institute, a new Environmental Transformation Fund will support renewable energy, biofuels and other non-nuclear, low-carbon technologies such as CCS, through the later stages of the innovation chain.

The new department for Innovation, Universities and Skills has been set up to make sure that Britain leads the world in science, innovation and research, and to help create a workforce which has the skills, knowledge and ambition to be up there with the best in a more competitive, dynamic global economy.

Better skills aren’t just an optional extra, something for employers to pursue when they have a bit of spare cash, or for individuals to think about when they’ve got some spare time. Developing better skills has to be a continuous, career-long process, helping every individual to achieve progress in their career and every business to be more productive, competitive and profitable.

But Government cannot do this alone.

The Leitch report emphasised that more than 70% of the 2020 working age population have already left compulsory education. This means we cannot simply rely on improving the skills of those currently in education. For UK productivity to improve, we need to ensure those people who are already in work are motivated and have access to education and training opportunities and are improving their skills.

Through the new Employment and Skills Commission, and employer led Sector Skills Councils, there will be a strong voice for employers at the heart of this system.

Sector Skills Councils, including the Science, Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies Alliance (SEMTA–the Council that covers engineering), will play a central role in ensuring UK engineering has the highly skilled workforce it will need to continue to successfully compete in increasingly competitive global markets. Through working closely with business, Sector Skills Councils will provide detailed analysis of future sector skills requirements, ensure that the future supply of skills and qualifications is driven by what employers need, and work to raise employer ambition and investment in skills at all levels.

Leitch emphasised the need for a shared responsibility between Government, employers and individuals if we are to meet ambitious new targets on skills. Business must now make the most of the opportunities offered through government reforms of the system and take up the challenge to raise their ambitions for skills at all levels.

In future, Sector Skills Councils will decide which vocational qualifications should be recognised on the new Qualifications and Credit Framework. This should radically simplify the qualifications structure in engineering and help build employers’ confidence in the programmes and qualifications offered by universities, colleges and training providers. So it is essential that employers engage with their SSC and make their views heard.

The new National Skills Academies aim to meet the needs of employers and deliver world-class vocational skills. The National Skills Academy for Manufacturing was launched in early 2007 by Alistair Darling and it will initially focus on delivering the SEMTA Sector Skills Agreement, which is a key mechanism for articulating skills demand and will underpin the move to a more demand led system of education and training. The National skills Academy for Manufacturing will take the lead on developing the skills that will underpin Management and Leadership, Productivity and Competitiveness and Technical Workforce Development.

A number of these new academies have already been launched or are in the planning stage. They will contribute considerably to the development of the engineering skills base including those covering the construction, nuclear, chemical process industries glass manufacture and coatings.

So what’s in the future for the next generation of engineers?

The future might be a known unknown but I don’t think the challenges I have identified are going to go away, at least, not unless engineers come up with the solutions and politicians get their act together globally.

Who will commercialize carbon capture and storage for burning coal, and gas? Who will bring about the advances we need in renewable energy? Who will work out how to cost effectively retro-fit homes, making them carbon neutral? Or entertainment systems that only uses a fraction of the power they use today, with no standby button? Who will discover new food production techniques to feed the extra billions on this planet? And who will bring the hydrogen Model T to market?

The answer will be scientists and engineers –and some of you may decide to emulate your Chinese politburo graduate colleges and join Government too.